Current Situation:

Lychee production areas across Southeast Mexico have been impacted over the past 10–12 days by the passage of late-season weather systems, including the Cold Front 44 and Cold Front 45, which moved through the Gulf region during mid-April.

These systems brought:

• Lower daytime and nighttime temperatures (reduced heat unit accumulation)

• Increased cloud cover (limited solar radiation)

• Intermittent rainfall and “Norte” wind events (30–70 km/h gusts)

More recently, over the past 3–4 days, a regional heat wave has been observed across all production areas, accelerating fruit development but in a non-uniform manner.

From a physiological standpoint, this combination of conditions has resulted in:

• Reduced metabolic activity followed by a sudden reactivation

• Irregular °Brix (sugar) accumulation across orchards

• Uneven color development and ripening patterns

Crop Condition

Overall fruit condition remains healthy and structurally sound across most orchards. However, fruit development continues to show a delay relative to original projections, followed by uneven maturation patterns due to the recent temperature fluctuations.

This dynamic is typical under transitional weather conditions and requires selective harvesting strategies to maintain quality standards.

Harvest & Supply Update

• Harvest start is now expected to be delayed by approximately 8–9 days.

• First truck arrivals into South Texas are now projected for May 12th.

At the start of the season:

• Harvesting will take place across multiple growing areas simultaneously, rather than sequentially.

• This is due to uneven ripening triggered by the recent heat wave, with fruit reaching maturity at different rates across regions.

To ensure consistency and quality:

• Harvest crews will selectively pick the most advanced fruit from each area.

• Strict focus will be placed on meeting °Brix and color standards, prioritizing eating quality over volume.

Volume Progression:

• First 5–6 days of harvest: Expected to be slow and limited in volume

• From Week 2 of harvest onward: A significant increase in overall volumes is expected as more orchards reach uniform maturity

• This should allow the program to recover pace and meet seasonal volume commitments

Quality Outlook

Despite the delayed and uneven start, the crop continues to show strong quality potential:

• Selective harvesting will ensure only fruit meeting optimal maturity standards is packed.

• The combination of delayed development followed by heat may support:

  • Improved sizing

  • Strong internal quality and flavor profile

Next 2 Weeks Outlook:

As weather conditions stabilize following recent frontal systems and temperatures return to warmer ranges (mid-80s °F), we expect:

• Recovery in GDD accumulation

• Acceleration in color development and °Brix levels

• Improved harvest uniformity by mid-May.

While elevated temperatures and increased solar radiation have recently accelerated fruit development, cooler conditions are forecast to follow shortly, which may continue to influence maturity patterns.

Given the high sensitivity of lychee to temperature variability and the potential for rapid changes in fruit condition, we will provide weekly crop updates moving forward to closely monitor harvest progression, quality, and supply dynamics.